we are seeing that prediction markets are back on the board. rolling into October, weekly notional is pressing up toward the last election-cycle peak (~$1.5B). @Polymarket and @Kalshi are neck-and-neck, while @trylimitless and @MyriadMarkets are adding long-tail flow. why volumes are climbing (that fast): > macro: Last peak (’24 Q4) was election-driven. This leg (’25 Q3–Q4) looks structural—capital (new raises), distribution (MetaMask, Robinhood), and data rails (Pyth) bringing new fundamentals. > meso: The attention → capital → product → liquidity flywheel is firing. By rough count, 80+ PM projects exist now (ex-dashboards/tools). > micro: meme ROI cooled, flows rotated. A chunk of meme players are farming edge in PMs instead. among which, a strong trend to watch: public → social > “public events” (elections, FOMC, CPI) aggregate attention and are great for depth + clean resolution—prime for info-arb and slower cycles. > as those saturate, alpha compresses. To absorb broader, messier liquidity, PMs are tilting to smaller, faster, more personal markets—“Will this KOL launch?”, “Can this meme crack $1B FDV?” > in these pools, institutions don’t hold obvious info advantage; retail can capture outsized alpha. > platform signals for this trend: . @trylimitless , @MyriadMarkets , @noise_xyz → social entry points + UGC markets. . @joustlabs_ → explicit Gamified UGC Prediction, letting CT spin KOL/headline events into tradable markets. . @trade_rumour , @PredictFolio → “gossip + trade” UX; prediction as a first-class feed object. our thesis about prediction market in a nutshell: PMs are morphing into social trading primitives where information → content → trade lives in one loop. Attention create markets, and markets manufacture reality. Hyperliquid already proved this playbook: nail UX around real user pain points + clean incentives, and you can stack liquidity without relying on early heavyweight MMs.