Attention create markets, and markets manufacture reality Markets will alter reality when the payout is large enough
we are seeing that prediction markets are back on the board. rolling into October, weekly notional is pressing up toward the last election-cycle peak (~$1.5B). @Polymarket and @Kalshi are neck-and-neck, while @trylimitless and @MyriadMarkets are adding long-tail flow. why volumes are climbing (that fast): > macro: Last peak (’24 Q4) was election-driven. This leg (’25 Q3–Q4) looks structural—capital (new raises), distribution (MetaMask, Robinhood), and data rails (Pyth) bringing new fundamentals. > meso: The attention → capital → product → liquidity flywheel is firing. By rough count, 80+ PM projects exist now (ex-dashboards/tools). > micro: meme ROI cooled, flows rotated. A chunk of meme players are farming edge in PMs instead. among which, a strong trend to watch: public → social > “public events” (elections, FOMC, CPI) aggregate attention and are great for depth + clean resolution—prime for info-arb and slower cycles. > as those saturate, alpha compresses. To absorb broader, messier liquidity, PMs are tilting to smaller, faster, more personal markets—“Will this KOL launch?”, “Can this meme crack $1B FDV?” > in these pools, institutions don’t hold obvious info advantage; retail can capture outsized alpha. > platform signals for this trend: . @trylimitless , @MyriadMarkets , @noise_xyz → social entry points + UGC markets. . @joustlabs_ → explicit Gamified UGC Prediction, letting CT spin KOL/headline events into tradable markets. . @trade_rumour , @PredictFolio → “gossip + trade” UX; prediction as a first-class feed object. our thesis about prediction market in a nutshell: PMs are morphing into social trading primitives where information → content → trade lives in one loop. Attention create markets, and markets manufacture reality. Hyperliquid already proved this playbook: nail UX around real user pain points + clean incentives, and you can stack liquidity without relying on early heavyweight MMs.
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