With the monthly close now behind us, it’s time to focus on some key considerations regarding the USDT D. and its potential impact on BTC market structure. As previously highlighted, the 4.78% zone represented an important monthly supply level, a technical area that required close attention during the close. The goal was to see a monthly close below this level to confirm a bullish continuation, but that did not occur, leading instead to the formation of a breaker block. This means that the same area, which previously acted as a supply zone, now serves as a potential base for a technical bounce, and consequently, as a point of distribution for Bitcoin. It is therefore essential to closely monitor the monthly reaction in this zone, because even though we already have confirmation of a structural shift, it’s not impossible for the current breaker to evolve into a double or even triple breaker. These are rare occurrences, but not unheard of, as demonstrated by SOL weekly breaker shifted into a triple one. Right now, we have BTC in a distributive phase and USDT.D in an accumulative phase, which makes such developments less likely but still possible. Regarding Bitcoin, we have discussed many times how, from a broader perspective, it remains in premium levels. The potential bounce on USDT.D could therefore trigger a reaction in BTC, giving us valuable insight into the market’s true strength. If that reaction proves weak, it may signal a deeper structural reversal and the confirmation of a bear market. At the current stage, however, despite maintaining a bearish outlook on BTC, there is still no technical confirmation of a bear market, as no significant structural lows have yet been broken. Given this context, my personal approach will be to consider a short position, as it makes sense from a technical standpoint. Nevertheless, I’ll keep an open mind and remain flexible in case of a potential double breaker scenario, which would require reassessing my strategy as price action unfolds.
Most important monthly closure on USDT D. coming on the 31st of October. Truly trick or treat. 🎃🍬
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